The 2002 Election For
Governor of Wisconsin

Wisconsin was a swing state in the last presidential election, and it will be one in the 2002 governor's race.

Tommy G. Thompson, a Republican who served a record 14 years as governor, resigned on Feb. 1 to join the Bush cabinet as secretary of Health and Human Services.

Thompson had dominated the state's political landscape since his election in 1986. His departure guarantees a competitive race in 2002.

THE CANDIDATES

REPUBLICANS:

Scott McCallum, 50, who had served 14 years as Thompson's lieutenant governor, became governor on Feb. 1 and will be a candidate. He is likely to be the only Republican candidate, although State Senator Robert Welch and is still considering entering the race. Welch has run statewide in an unsuccessful U.S. Senate race, so has some name recognition and statewide support. Recent unhappiness from some Republicans over McCallum budget vetoes has renewed talk of a possible conservative primary challenge.

DEMOCRATS:

Jim Doyle, 55, in his third term as attorney general, is the leading Democratic candidate. Doyle announced at the state Democratic convention in June 2000 that he would be a candidate.

Tom Barrett, 47, a four-term Milwaukee Congressman and former state legislator who entered the race on May 20. He is seeking to become the first sitting Congressman in Wisconsin history to be elected governor, and the first Milwaukee Democrat to become governor since 1890.

Gary George, 47, a state senator from Milwaukee. George has run two losing statewide primary races, for U.S. Senate in 1986 and for governor in 1998, never winning more than 20% of the Democratic vote.

Kathleen Falk, 50, county executive of Dane County (Madison). A former environmental lawyer, Falk won a second term as county executive in a non-partisan election in April. She entered the race in August.

Candidates are not required to file nomination petitions and declarations of candidacy until July 2002. The state's primary is in September.

SIZING UP THE RACE

Tommy Thompson's departure has almost made this a race for an open seat.

Scott McCallum, after 14 years as lieutenant governor, was a virtual unknown when he became governor on Feb. 1. He clearly will have the advantage of incumbency, including the ability to raise special interest money, for 18 months. But he will not approach the personal popularity or job approval ratings of Thompson, which were comparable to those of Sen. Herb Kohl, the state's most popular public official.

McCallum, somewhat surprisingly, took steps to distance himself from Thompson during his first weeks in office. Rather than position himself as Thompson's partner during the last 14 years, McCallum blamed Thompson for a state budget crisis and staked out other positions to set himself apart.

He stepped into some early controversy, firing the Dept. of Natural Resources secretary, prompting complaints from environmentalists and legislators in both parties that McCallum was politicizing environmental protection decisions.

McCallum's proposal to securitize the state's tobacco lawsuit award, with some of the immediate windfall to plug a budget deficit, also has been a contentious issue.

McCallum also has drawn criticism for a lack of leadership on a range of issues, from a looming $700-million budget deficit to a proposal to divide the state Dept. of Natural Resources into two agencies. That has provoked some strong, negative editorial comment.

COMPARING THE DEMOCRATS

POLITICAL BASE. Doyle is the only Democrat with a statewide base. A former Dane County (Madison) district attorney, he defeated a Republican incumbent in 1990 to become AG. He was re-elected in 1994 with 53% of the vote, and in 1998 carried all but one of the state's 72 counties, received more votes than any candidate for state office in Wisconsin history, and ran ahead of Tommy Thompson, winning 66% of the vote. Doyle has visited every media market and daily newspaper on a frequent, regular basis for 10 years and has broad support. His parents were among the founders of the modern Democratic Party of Wisconsin – his father was a federal judge and his mother a state legislator – and the Doyle name is known and revered by Democratic activists. Doyle has been working for a year to line up supporters in key counties, and has a good head-start in commitments and endorsements.

All of the Democrats who may run have had the support of organized labor and the teachers' union in previous races. In a primary with three or more candidates, it is unlikely that anyone will get the required support for an AFL-CIO endorsement, freeing individual unions to make their own decisions. The Operating Engineers, Pipe Trades, Wisconsin Firefighters, and Teamsters – representing a total of 70,000 members -- all have endorsed Doyle.

POLLING: MATCHUPS, NAME RECOGNITION AND RATINGS.
The Doyle campaign has not done its own survey since the 1998 election, but a number of neutral groups which made poll results public during the past year all show Doyle's statewide strength. His name recognition, favorable ratings and support are significantly higher than any other Democrat who might run for governor. In one recent poll, he also led McCallum.

The name recognition numbers are unlikely to change significantly – except perhaps for McCallum, who after eight months as governor is still unknown to one-third of those responding to his own campaign's most recent poll. With Republican Party-paid radio and taxpayer-paid television and public service commercials, he may be able to improve those numbers. Recognition for the Democrats will almost certainly remain static until they buy paid media sometime next year.

McCallum Campaign. A September survey done for McCallum's campaign by McLaughlin and Associates, and released in early October, gave McCallum a predictable incumbent bump in ratings after the Sept. 11 terrorist attack, but there was plenty of bad news for McCallum as well. McCallum led Doyle in a matchup, 44-33, and no other candidates were tested. An incumbent at 44 a year before the election is very vulnerable. Worse yet for McCallum, his positive-negative job performance ratings were almost even – 46% good/excellent and 45% fair or poor.

According to a McLaughlin memo, the vote for Doyle has gone from 20.5 in January to 32.5 now, an increase of 12 points. Doyle's favorable rating also has improved, from 39.5 in January to 43.8 in September. The net difference between Doyle's positive and negative ratings also went up, from 25.2 to 30.8. No other Democrats are even on the radar screen. Only 33% of the voters know enough about Barrett to rate him, and only 24% know enough about Falk to have an opinion. McCallum's pollster did not consider them viable enough to even ask head-to-head matchups against McCallum.

Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. This conservative group's survey, done early August by Harris Interactive, had Doyle leading McCallum 39-37 among likely voters. Barrett lost to McCallum 37-33 and George lost to McCallum 43-25. Falk was not tested, and the poll did not ask a primary matchup among the Democrats. It did ask favorable-unfavorable ratings, with McCallum at 30-21 favorable-unfavorable. Doyle was at 33-16, Barrett at 22-7 and George at 8-11. Effective name recognition – percentage who knew the candidate well enough to have an opinion – was 51 for McCallum, 49 for Doyle, 29 for Barrett and 19 for George.

St. Norbert's College/Wisconsin Public Radio. Completed in mid-April, it showed Doyle leading McCallum in job performance, popularity and name recognition after McCallum had been governor for six weeks. Doyle had a 51-16 favorable-unfavorable rating compared with 43-19 for McCallum. Doyle's job performance rating was 60-16 compared with McCallum's 57-19, and Doyle held a slight 84-82 edge in name recognition. Barrett had 40% name recognition, Kind 29%, Falk 27% and George 23%. Their favorables, among all respondents: Barrett 18%, Falk 13%, Kind 11%, and George 6%.

WisPolitics. Two surveys done for this Internet political newsletter show Doyle in a strong position. A March survey gave Doyle higher favorable ratings than McCallum, with 49-12 to McCallum's 44-13. Doyle's effective name recognition – the total of those who knew him well enough to offer an opinion – was 61 to McCallum's 57. Barrett's effective name recognition was 26%, with Kind at 18%, George at 16% and Falk at 15%.

An earlier survey in September for WisPolitics.com, did hypothetical election matchups. In a head-to-head matchup among Democrats, Doyle led 53-22 over Barrett. The poll also did a four-person Democratic primary matchup, but asked everyone, not just Democrats, to answer. The result was that 18% (hard-core Republicans, presumably) said they wouldn't vote for any Democrat, and 23% were undecided. Results: Doyle 33, Barrett 11, Falk 11, and George 4.

League of Municipalites. In a League of Municipalities' poll in September 2000, Doyle led among four Democrats tested, with a statewide rating of 52% favorable and 11% unfavorable.

For comparison purposes, here are the statewide numbers. McCallum was still lieutenant governor at the time.

	FAV. -UNFAV.	NO OPIN.	NEVER HEARD
Jim Doyle	52-11	21	16
Tom Barrett	27-7	23	43
Scott McCallum	33-7	23	37
Scott Jensen	25-8	23	43

Those numbers reflect name recognition, not votes. But they also reflect the difficulty for a candidate for governor to become known statewide – even if they hold a statewide office or one that is visible in the media.

FUNDRAISING. This seems certain to be the most expensive governor's race in state history. McCallum has talked publicly about raising $7-million or $8-million for the race. Democrats probably will raise half that amount; no Democratic candidate for governor has raised more than $1.1-million in the past.

Doyle reported record contributions for the first half of 2001, ending with slightly more than $1-million in the bank on June 30. Sixteen months before the election, Doyle had already raised $1,360,206, more than any Democratic candidate for governor had ever raised in the entire campaign. Doyle has raised almost 90% of the money from 8,000 individual donors, with less than 10 per cent from political action committees. Doyle's fundraising pace actually picked up after Barrett entered the race in May, raising $334,000 in the six weeks after Barrett's announcement. Barrett reported a bank balance of $942,000, which included $750,000 transferred from his Congressional campaign account, and raised over the last five years. Falk entered the race in August with $91,000 in the bank and George reported $52,000 on hand June 30. McCallum, already being bolstered by in-kind Republican Party radio commercials, had $2-million in the bank on June 30 and is expected to raise $6-million or $7-million total.



THE DOYLE FOR GOVERNOR CAMPAIGN

CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Susan Goodwin, Doyle for Governor, Box 2687, Madison WI 53701. (608/284-2002). Goodwin, who managed Doyle's 1998 re-election campaign, served as Doyle's executive assistant in the state Dept. of Justice until January, when she resigned to run the campaign.

GENERAL CONSULTANT: Campaign Communications, 2937 S. Superior, Milwaukee WI 53207. (414/486-9651). Bill Christofferson has managed, advised and done the media for dozens of local, state and federal campaigns in Wisconsin since 1985, including Doyle's three campaigns for attorney general.

POLLING: Hickman, Brown, 1350 Connecticut Ave., Suite 206, Washington DC 20036. (202/659-4000.) Kirk Brown, a partner in this top national Democratic polling firm, has been Doyle's pollster since 1990.

MEDIA CONSULTANT: GMMB (formerly Greer, Margolis, Mitchell, Burns & Associates), 1010 Wisconsin Ave., NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20007. (202-338-8700). One of the nation's leading media firms, Greer, Margolis has helped elect more Democratic governors than any other firm in the country.