Wisconsin Governor's Race:
Tom Barrett is Positioned to Win the Democratic Primary and General Election

Tom Barrett, 47, has represented the north side of Milwaukee in Congress since 1993. Prior to that, he served in the state Assembly and Senate from 1984 to 1992. He is married and has four children.
Primary Election

In addition to Barrett, the other candidates seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination are: Attorney General Jim Doyle; Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk; and state Sen. Gary George. Doyle and Falk are both from Madison, while George is from Milwaukee. Barrett and Doyle are widely considered to be the frontrunners, Falk is a wild card and George is a minor candidate.

Democratic Turnout Favors Barrett

Tom Barrett's base is Milwaukee, which is by far the largest community in Wisconsin. In the 2000 Democratic primary, turnout (by media market) was as follows:

Milwaukee: 40%

Madison: 21%

Green Bay – Appleton: 15%

Wausau – Rhinelander: 9%

La Crosse – Eau Claire: 8%

Duluth – Superior: 4%

Minneapolis – St. Paul: 4%

Marquette: 0.1%
In short, Barrett starts with a base media market (Milwaukee) that is roughly twice the size of the market that Doyle and Falk share (Madison).

Barrett is Well-Liked in his Base

The most recent polling shows that Barrett is popular in his base, which as noted above comprised 40% of the Democratic primary vote. According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll released by the McCallum campaign, Barrett scores a 42% favorable rating in the Milwaukee media market, and a 52% favorable rating in Milwaukee County.

As Barrett continues to travel and become better-known statewide, his numbers will improve in those areas as well. He is picking up endorsements and publicity across the state. In short, he has room for growth, and reason to expect that growth to occur.

Barrett is Well-Liked by Democratic Activists

Tom Barrett handily won a straw poll conducted at last June's state Democratic Party convention. Barrett won 51% of the vote, easily beating Doyle (32%), Falk (6%) and George (3%).

While straw polls are not scientific, they can be important barometers of opinion among key groups. In this case, the key group was Democratic Party activists who represent the ground troops needed by every campaign's field operation.

Doyle's Numbers are Flat

Although the Doyle campaign points to their three statewide elections (1990, 1994, and 1998) as signs of strength, his statewide popularity is actually in decline. In fact, Doyle is barely more popular today than he was in 1993, despite eight years of intensive travel and campaign activity. Meanwhile, his negatives are creeping up. A series of polls conducted by Harris Interactive for the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute shows the trend:

What these numbers show is that while Doyle is generally well-known, that level of familiarity is not translating into higher positives. It is reasonable to wonder if Doyle can make these numbers move significantly in the next 11 months, given their lack of movement since 1993. And while Doyle's favorable rating dropped 4 points between 2000 and 2001 (37% to 33%), Barrett's jumped from 16% to 22% - closing the gap from 21 points to 11.

Falk is a Relative Unknown, and Splits Her Base with Doyle

Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk is relatively unknown (18/6 favorable/unfavorable rating in the McCallum poll cited earlier). Worse for her, she splits her base of support – the Madison media market – with Jim Doyle. She is also far behind the frontrunners in terms of fundraising (with an estimated $100,000 banked versus roughly $1 million for Barrett and Doyle as of June 30). She did not make the cut for the EMILY'S List roster of supported candidates.

General Election

There is reason to expect that if Tom Barrett wins the Democratic primary, he will go on to win the governorship. Scott McCallum is easily the weakest incumbent governor in the nation – when he polled 44% versus Doyle (taken in late September, to take advantage of the post-terrorist attack bounce for incumbents) his campaign actually touted the fact as a great leap forward. But conventional wisdom says that any number below 50% is a warning sign for an incumbent, and McCallum has never reached that number in any poll.

Barrett is in a Dead Heat Against McCallum Now?

The WPRI poll in August, 2001 showed that Barrett is very competitive against McCallum. In that poll, Barrett and McCallum were in a statistical dead heat. Barrett polled 33% vs. 37% for McCallum, with a 3-point margin of error. This is a remarkably strong showing for Barrett, given both McCallum's inherent advantages as an incumbent governor and the fact that McCallum has run statewide 4 times (1986, 1990, 1994 and 1998).

?And has More Room to Grow in the Months to Come

The same poll also showed McCallum leading Barrett in name ID by 20 points, 50% to 30%. This is actually good news for Barrett, because it demonstrates that in a race that's currently a dead heat, Barrett actually has much more room to grow than McCallum.

Troubled Waters Ahead for McCallum

McCallum inherits a troubled state budget and a troubled economy. The current budget is already facing a $100 million shortfall, a gap that is likely to widen as state revenues are periodically re-estimated to reflect the slowing economy. The budget has already been lambasted by the Washington, DC-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities as among the worst in the nation.

More importantly, the state's fiscal situation has prevented McCallum from being able to adorn the budget with politically-attractive spending programs or tax cuts. Even worse, the deteriorating revenue stream may force McCallum and state lawmakers to pass a "budget adjustment" bill next spring that either cuts additional spending or raises taxes – neither option being attractive in an election year.

McCallum has also been plagued by poor political judgment and advice. Recently, he told advocates for the disabled and elderly to "stop whining" when they protested state budget cuts. He has also angered his Republican base by vetoing a number of budget provisions dear to the heart of GOP legislators – in one case, after promising that he wouldn't.