--------------------------------------------------
Confidential
To: Scott McCallum for Governor
From: McLaughlin & Associates
Re: Wisconsin - September Survey Analysis
Date: September 27, 2001
Summary: Governor Scott McCallum has significantly increased his voter support and favorable rating. He has widened his lead over Jim Doyle to a decisive 11.8% (44.2% to 32.5%). He has gained major momentum as he climbs towards the 50% threshold. Underscoring his ballot momentum, McCallum's favorable rating continues to grow and he has positioned himself as a strong incumbent with a very strong 5 to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio.
Conversely, Jim Doyle's voter support is sliding.
Key Findings: Governor McCallum has been able to drive up his favorables while keeping his unfavorables very low. His favorable to unfavorable ratio is now a very strong 5 to 1 ratio (55% to 13%). Like any strong incumbent, McCallum's favorable rating is over 50% and as a result he will be hard to beat.
"Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott McCallum? If you have no opinion or have never heard of Scott McCallum, just say so."
|
9/24/01
|
6/29/01
|
1/11/01
|
|
Favorable
|
54.8
|
45.8
|
30.5
|
|
Unfavorable
|
13.2
|
16.5
|
6.2
|
|
No Opinion
|
31.0
|
36.2
|
37.5
|
|
Never Heard Of
|
1.0
|
1.5
|
25.8
|
|
Net
|
+41.5
|
+29.2
|
+24.3
|
|
|
|
|
Since January McCallum's favorable rating has steadily climbed an overwhelming 24-points. This positive trend clearly indicates McCallum's strong momentum and ability.
Unlike McCallum, Jim Doyle's favorable rating has been virtually flat since January.
"Will you please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Doyle? If you have no opinion or have never heard of Jim Doyle, just say so."
|
9/24/01
|
6/29/01
|
1/11/01
|
|
Favorable
|
43.8
|
40.0
|
39.5
|
|
Unfavorable
|
13.0
|
15.5
|
14.3
|
|
No Opinion
|
36.0
|
38.0
|
31.0
|
|
Never Heard Of
|
7.2
|
6.5
|
15.2
|
|
Net
|
+30.8
|
+24.5
|
+25.2
|
In light of Jim Doyle's favorable rating remaining statistically stagnant, McCallum's 24-point favorable gain puts him in a strong position to win the election next year.
Clearly, Governor McCallum has gained voter support and momentum. At the same time Jim Doyle is losing ground in the ballot. McCallum now has a decisive 11.8% lead over Doyle and is getting closer to receiving the majority of the votes.
"Thinking ahead, if the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were the Republican Scott McCallum, and the Democrat Jim Doyle, for whom would you vote?"
|
9/24/01
|
6/29/01
|
1/11/01
|
|
Scott McCallum
|
44.2
|
39.0
|
29.0
|
|
Jim Doyle
|
32.5
|
37.0
|
20.5
|
|
Undecided
|
23.2
|
24.0
|
50.5
|
|
Net
|
+11.8
|
+2.0
|
+8.5
|
The numbers reflect that Jim Doyle's voter support is soft. McCallum has been able to turn Doyle voters into McCallum voters.
Other Key Findings:
Two-thirds of the voters either don't have an opinion or never heard of Tom Barrett (41% no opinion - 27% never heard of). His favorable to unfavorable rating is 26% to 7%.
Three-quarters of the voters either don't have an opinion or never heard of Kathleen Falk (40% no opinion - 35% never heard of). Her favorable to unfavorable rating is 18% to 6%.
Conclusion: Governor McCallum has gained serious momentum and has positioned himself as the strong incumbent candidate. McCallum's favorables continue to grow and his voter support is climbing towards the 50% threshold. Conversely, Jim Doyle is headed in the opposite direction with the loss of voter support.
Methodology: This Wisconsin survey of 400 likely voters was conducted on September 23 and 25, 2001.
All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographical units to reflect actual voter distributions for Gubernatorial elections in Wisconsin.
The accuracy of this survey of 400 likely voters is +/- 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval.
